The Ahrefs' Organic Traffic metric is our estimate of monthly organic search traffic coming to a target website or URL.
How is Organic Traffic calculated?
We put every keyword into Google and check the position where that website/URL ranks for that keyword.
Then, based on the number of clicks (via clickstream data), we create the CTR (Click Through Rate) curve for every keyword separately. This CTR curve gives us the CTR for the keyword based on the target website/URL's position in the SERP.
Finally, we calculate the organic traffic of each keyword by multiplying the estimated search volume of the keyword and the unique CTR of the target website/URL's position in the SERP.
It is worth mentioning that traffic numbers reported by Ahrefs will differ from those reported by Google Analytics.
How Ahrefs ensures traffic predictions are close to reality
- Having the biggest database of search queries and we update all rankings almost every month (for US).
- Updating keyword search volume numbers monthly, to make sure we factor in all seasonal trends.
- Showing the estimation of traffic for each keyword by applying a unique CTR curve for each (when we have sufficient clickstream data).
Comparison with other tools
- Read more about the correlation of keyword search volume between three Google sources - https://ahrefs.com/blog/keyword-search-volume/.
- Read more about the correlation between Ahrefs' traffic predictions and that of other tools - https://ahrefs.com/blog/website-traffic/.